file 17

To make civil defence exercises more realistic detailed scenarios were prepared to set the scene for the players and to introduce the problems they would be faced with. The scenarios usually consisted of a background to the crisis, detailed lead-in scenarios covering events in recent days and then the situation at “startex” covering the various services, departments and so on involved. They show the depth of the problems the few, largely untrained and ill prepared people in central and local government might have faced in preparing the country for war in the 1980s.

The scenarios followed current civil defence policy and guidelines. All the plans were assumed to have been completed in time, everyone did what they were expected to do and all resources needed were available. The scenarios rolled forward along an orderly timescale with each stage of preparation being completed fully and on time so that hostilities broke out when everything was ready but not before problems of holding the country in a state of tension began to cause problems.

This File is based on scenarios from several exercises run during the 1980s and shows how a war might have developed in 1986 and the home defence response.

Following the seizure of power last month in the Soviet Union by an extreme nationalistic group relations between the Soviet Block and the West continue to worsen. There are indications that Warsaw Pact forces are preparing for full mobilisation and the Soviet Union has demanded the demilitarisation of West Germany. In Britain, Government attempts to play down the situation have been largely unsuccessful. There is growing concern in the media and organised demonstrations by peace groups become a daily occurrence. Public concern is reflected in a run on long-life food. The Government orders all departments to 24 hour manning. Local authorities are instructed to make limited preparatory actions to implement their war plans under Stage 2 including 24 hour manning of Main Emergency Centres. Several Nuclear Free Zone aligned councils refuse causing the tabloid press to call for a firm response from and support for the Government.

The Prime Minister announces that as a precaution the reinforcement of Europe by NATO forces would be increased. The first two Emergency Powers Acts are passed through Parliament in 36 hours and under pre-prepared Regulations the Government takes extra powers to requisition transport and equipment to help military preparations and in particular the movement of US forces through Britain. In the evening, the first squadron of F-111 bombers arrives at RAF Thurleigh from the United States.

The Home Office instructs local authorities to collect RADIAC equipment from stores and begin crash training in its use. They are also told to begin training the many people volunteering for civil defence duties.

The Property Service Agency is ordered to prepare the Regional Government Headquarters. Senior staff are designated and told to prepare to take up their posts.

The BBC is instructed to bring the Wartime Broadcasting Service to readiness. Staff are dispatched to the emergency facility at Wood Norton near Evesham and the emergency cell in Broadcasting House is manned and its facilities to receive and broadcast attack warnings checked. Transmitter sites earmarked for WTBS use are stocked with fuel and food.

UKWMO is put on a war alert and Royal Observer Corps members warned to be prepared to man their monitoring posts. The army begin to prepare Armed Forces Headquarters.

At 6pm, the Ministry of Agriculture announces that rationing of long-life food products would be introduced and that such items would not be available for sale from midnight. There is panic buying at those shops still open.

The Warsaw Pact announces that in response to the warlike actions of the imperialist NATO governments it would supply arms and advisers to any country or group that might look to it for protection. There are major troop movements in the Middle East, Africa and Asia as traditional enemies begin to reinforce their borders. There is a worldwide breakdown in diplomatic relations and the United Nations is paralysed by disagreement.

The Queen’s Order is signed calling up certain reserve and Territorial Army units. An umbrella organisation calling itself the Combined Peace Movement openly organises demonstrations against Government policy and military activities. MI5 leaks information about Russian support and financing of the CPM to the tabloid press, which responds as predicted.

The police report heavier than normal traffic on roads to the West Country and North Wales. Queues are becoming common at petrol stations as large amounts of fuel are diverted to military use and to official stockpiles.

US forces begin to pass through Britain in ever increasing numbers. Under emergency powers, protection areas are declared around all airfields and guarded by armed troops. In the evening demonstrators organised by the CPM break through the wire fence at RAF Greenham Common and threaten to attack a cruise missile convoy which is preparing to leave. US troops fire on the demonstrators causing several casualties.

During the day, banks and building societies report increasing withdrawals of cash. Ugly scenes develop as some branches run out of cash. Claimants demanding emergency payments to stock up with food inundate Department of Social Security offices[1].

All Special Constables and Traffic Wardens are requested to report for full time duty. Police leave is cancelled and many forces adopt 12 hours shifts to increase available manpower.

A Russian destroyer shoots down a US reconnaissance aircraft in the Mediterranean. The US orders its forces worldwide to a higher state of alert. TV broadcasts show large scale troop movements throughout NATO countries but all western journalists are expelled from Warsaw Pact countries. Member countries of the two alliances break off diplomatic relations but behind the scenes attempts continue to diffuse the crisis.

Overseas travel facilities are thrown into increasing chaos. The requisitioning of aircraft for military use leaves many British citizens stranded abroad. Thousands of service families return from Germany adding to transport and accommodation problems, while many dependents of UK based US forces fly home. Heathrow and Gatwick airports are closed to civilian flights adding to the problems. Many ferries are requisitioned leaving lorry drivers stranded on both sides of the Channel. In Britain lorry and train drivers are increasingly reluctant to undertake long journeys.

The Government covertly requests manufacturers of food and medical supplies to increase production.

ROC controls and posts are ordered to 24 hour manning. Central government and local authority Scientific Advisers are asked to report to RGHQs and Emergency Centres.

The Ministry of Agriculture announces the requisition of all remaining bulk food stocks held by producers and wholesalers. The movement off-farm of all produce except perishable items is stopped and farm wardens are appointed. MAFF Regional Offices begin to organise additional Buffer Food Depots. Local authorities are told to start issuing ration documents.

Behind the scenes diplomatic activities continue but without any sign of compromise. Soviet aircraft buzz oil and gas installations in the North Sea. Many petrol stations have run out of petrol and there is increasing panic buying of unrationed food. There is a severe shortage of batteries for RADIAC equipment, torches and transistor radios.

Local authorities are ordered to take steps to implement Stage 3 measures. The third Emergency Powers Act is passed and the media briefed about plans for regional government in war. The Queen appoints Regional Commissioners but they do not take up their posts. The RGHQs and AFHQs are fully manned and Regional Emergency Committees (RECs) are set up. Prince Charles leaves London for an unannounced holiday in Scotland. Major art galleries and museums in London are closed and their Administrators told to evacuate a limited number of national art treasures. The media increasingly speculates that war is fast approaching.

The national siren system is tested and found to be far from effective. People are told to listen to Radio 4 for public announcements and information is released about the WTBS frequencies. Daily checks of the Emergency Communications Network are started.

The Warsaw Pact steps up its exercises with live firing in the North Sea, which it declares to be a “maritime danger area” informing NATO that its ships enter the area at their peril. CPM sponsored demonstrations are increasingly violent with numerous bombing and arson attacks. The police are hard pressed to control clashes between CPM supporters and growing nationalist groups.

The movement of people to the West Country, Wales and Scotland continues. The South West REC reports that 100000 people a day are arriving in the West Country. All available accommodation is full and police and local authorities are facing demands for food and shelter.

The rationing system is introduced. Local authorities are instructed to collect emergency feeding equipment, update their plans for emergency feeding and to train volunteers to man them.

Absenteeism grows as people decide to stay away from work, have left the area or are prevented from reaching work by transport difficulties. The Government repeats its message to “stay put” and for “business as usual” but the public is becoming increasingly alarmed.

In the face of growing media complaints about the lack of information on civil defence the Government steps up its information campaign. National papers are given Protect and Survive inserts covering basic civil defence measures and local authorities are asked to ensure that they have set up adequate information points. Local authorities are asked to step up civil defence training for as many volunteers as possible. The voluntary aid societies such as the Red Cross and WRVS are asked to assist.

Fire brigades are instructed to collect Green Goddess fire engines and other emergency stores and to take measures to increase their operational manpower. Military liaison officers are appointed to County Halls. The Surface Transport and Shipping Control Centre is activated and its Inland Transport Cell permanently manned.

The Government announces restrictions on the use of electricity for advertising and display lighting.

Localised, well-organised demonstrations continue, mainly directed against military facilities and personnel resulting in many pitched battles. CS gas and rubber bullets are used to disperse rioters.

The exodus of people from perceived danger areas around military bases and major cities continues. Accidents or vehicles that have run out of fuel are blocking many motorways and main roads to the West, Wales and Scotland. The refugees are causing intense strain on local resources. People living rough are causing health and public order problems. In some areas vigilante groups are being formed in response to the “invasion”. Local authorities are given powers to requisition warehouses and other large buildings to house refugees and some start emergency feeding centres drawing supplies from reserve stocks despite protests from MAFF.

All newspapers again carry Protect and Survive instructions. There is a run on building materials as people try to build shelters. RECs announce that key construction materials such as bricks and cement are to be placed under government control so that they can be used where there is greatest need.

Levels of absenteeism are averaging 25%. The Department of Trade reports its concerns about falling industrial production and considers the need to control industry under emergency powers. The RECs ask local authorities for information and suggestions. The Department of Employment announces it has taken power to control manpower to meet essential needs but has no practical way of enforcing its policies.

A British Airways Boeing 747 carrying families from Germany is shot down by a hand held missile as it approaches Luton Airport. The plane crashes onto the town centre. The resulting deaths, injuries, fires and damage overwhelm the emergency services.

MAFF implements its food dispersal plan for stocks held at ports. Hospitals are instructed to accelerate the discharge of patients and to restrict admissions. Most prisoners are released from gaols but many people considered potentially subversive are detained under the emergency powers. BT report the public telephone system is at breaking point and asks customers to limit their calls. The Government instructs BT to prepare to implement the Telephone Preference scheme. RADIAC instruments are issued to local authority and other workers designated to man monitoring positions.

Several gas distribution facilities are damaged by sabotage and it is announced that the public supply will be terminated from midnight causing alarm from those who cook and heat with gas. The public electricity supply is under increasing strain and rota cuts are started.

At dawn, Warsaw Pact ground forces attack West Germany, Denmark and Norway. There are widespread, small air attacks on the UK mainly against airfields. At mid-day the Prime Minister announces that a state of war exists.

There is a further surge of refugees. Over a million people have left London. Southern and Eastern ports see ever increasing numbers of small boats bringing refugees from the Continent, causing concerns about possible Warsaw Pact special forces units infiltrating the country under cover of them.

Local authority powers are vested in Emergency Committees and Controllers are appointed to all County and District authorities.

Local authorities open many first line Community Support Centres and public shelters. Attempts to set up Casualty Clearing Centres are hampered by the lack of basic first aid supplies and the absence of many National Health Service personnel serving with the reserve forces. In the areas directly affected by air raids, the emergency services are put under severe pressure.

The Telephone Preference Scheme is introduced cutting off some 90% of subscribers from the network. Further electricity cuts are introduced and main water supply reservoirs are valved off.

Air attacks on Britain continue and over 50 targets are attacked during the day. In some areas, the resulting fires and injuries overwhelm the emergency services. The cross-channel ferry Herald of Freedom, carrying US troops to France hits a mine off Dover and sinks with heavy loss of life. Large scale fighting is reported on all fronts in Europe but the situation is unclear. Normal life in the country comes to a halt.

There are unconfirmed TV reports that tactical nuclear weapons have been used in West Germany.

At 1am, Air Defence Operations Centre reports a large-scale missile launch from Soviet territory. Ten minutes later, a 150-kiloton hydrogen bomb detonates over RAF Scampton…

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The results of a nuclear attack would depend on many factors. The immediate effects would depend on the scale of the attack, size of weapons used, the targets, weather conditions, and so on. The effects on the country would depend on what factors such as what preparations had been made and how people reacted but whatever the circumstances a single hydrogen bomb exploding over a British city would be the greatest disaster this country, perhaps the world has ever experienced. But the military planners envisaged up to 200 such bombs exploding in just 2 or 3 days with possibly thousands more exploding throughout Europe, North America, the Soviet Union and perhaps beyond. During the last war cities like Dresden and Hiroshima suffered massive damage and loss of life but they were able to draw support from organised civil defence agencies from outside where government, power, society, the economy and so on were more or less unaffected. Moreover, rescue workers could operate free from fall-out problems. In World War 3 there would be no such help – everywhere would be affected.

In the 1950s and 1960s, those who were directly affected might have received some help from the civil defence forces but even then, many would be on their own. From the mid-1960s, there would be no squads of rescue workers digging for survivors, no first aid squads, no fire fighting, no ladies bringing tea and sympathy. At best, there might be some localised efforts on a self-help basis at the fringes of the damaged area.

There is little hope for those directly affected by the blast and the heat of the explosion. But only a very small proportion of the country’s area would affected like this. Of more concern to the planners were the indirect effects of the nuclear electro-magnetic pulse[2] and fallout, which would extend far beyond the area of damage and last for days and possibly weeks or months. Local effects would have widespread repercussions in today’s interdependent society. The loss of part of the national grid would mean widespread power failures, the loss of some raw materials would cripple a whole industry, the loss of key workers close a factory and so on. These effects would combine to paralyse the country and throw localities back on self-sufficiency on a scale not known for centuries. Gradually, people would begin to organise themselves but even in favourable conditions, it would take weeks or months for something resembling an organised lifestyle to evolve in most of the country. Even then, it would be on a primitive, self-sufficiency basis.

Exercise Hard Rock would have considered the situation 28 days after a major nuclear attack, or, in military jargon, at D+28. This and other exercises tended to be optimistic and assume that everything would work according to plan but even so the situation would be grim. The war was assumed to have stopped following the nuclear exchange, as both sides would have nothing to fight with, or perhaps for. The UK’s armed forces, which would have been mainly sent to mainland Europe, are assumed to have been wiped out.

The control system would have to develop from the grass roots. Initially, it would be hoped or assumed that communities would organise themselves lead by trained volunteers. These groups would have to organise initial emergency feeding and casualty care but while this level would probably be the key to the future, it was the one that was least organised and planned for. Local authority plans assumed that all the staff nominated for the control apparatus would turn up on the day, although surveys suggested that this would not be the case. They also assumed that all the plans for example involving the pivotal emergency feeding programmes would work which is very unrealistic. Furthermore, they supposed that all the controls in the regional government control chain would survive the attack, their occupants be unaffected by radiation and that the traumatised survivors allowed them to function. Such assumptions seem unrealistic.

Oil refining and bulk distribution will be non-existent. Oil products would be at low levels, although few people or goods would be moving so demand would be limited. The main use would come later for agriculture. Gas supplies would have been cut off pre-attack and would not be restored in the immediate future. Coal production would be affected by the lack of electricity but some open cast mining might be restored by D+28.

The road and rail infrastructure would be largely intact although hampered by a lack of fuel, electricity and labour but the biggest loss would be the electricity supply. Modern society is totally dependent on electricity but the planners always assumed that a nuclear attack would result in the total loss of the domestic electricity supply due to direct damage to the generating and distribution systems and the effects of nuclear electro magnetic pulse. By D+28 some local supplies might be available direct from power stations but this would be very restricted as they would be dependent on various outside supplies and their air intakes would draw in large amounts of fallout. With no heating or lighting, little food, few medical supplies and no water or sewage systems the survivors would face a desperate future, even without the effects of a possible “nuclear winter”.

Medical services would be badly affected. Modern hospitals are very vulnerable to blast damage and have little fallout protection. Many would be full of military casualties before any casualties from the nuclear attack began to arrive. Most would be affected by the loss of power for heating, lighting and cooking and the lack of water. Injured survivors would quickly overwhelm any medical facilities close to an attacked area. By D+28, those receiving casualties would have run out of drugs, dressings and other supplies and the staffs would be exhausted. By D+28, radiation poisoning would begin to show in many survivors. There would be no effective treatment so that even in areas away from the ground zeros rising death rates would cause burial and disease control problems.

A month after the attack most people will have run out of food and be dependent on public feeding centres. Most plans expected that overall there would be sufficient food available for the immediate future but they assumed that the emergency feeding centres could be built, staffed, organised and then supplied day after day with food and fuel perhaps in the autumn when the hours of daylight would be decreasing and the weather worsening.

Overall, even in the least affected areas the condition of the survivors at D+28 would be desperate. They would exist on, at the best, subsistence rations in a community possibly teetering on the brink of anarchy. Their homes would be cold and dark. Many refugees would be in inadequate accommodation or billeted with unwilling hosts. They would have little knowledge of what had happened to loved ones outside their immediate area. They would mostly have no work, except possibly hard manual work in the fields. The psychological strain would be immense. Even assuming they survived the winter, they would have no future to look forward to. Areas that failed to organise themselves would be lucky to survive. Those suffering from illness, including the affects of radiation, the weak and the old would have little hope.

This is what the civil defence planners throughout the cold war expected. The situation, had it ever occurred may have been very different but as the Principal of the Home Defence College at Easingwold, Air Vice Marshall Sir Leslie Mavor told delegates on civil defence courses “...if there is one thing that is as near as dammit certain it is that after a nuclear war we will never pass this way again…” Even on the most optimistic assumptions, life after a nuclear attack would have been a struggle for survival.

ZZZ

[1] Plans existed for a “war emergency scheme” for social security payments.

[2] An exploding H-bomb would produce a nuclear electro-magnetic pulse that destroys electrical circuits. It would damage electrical control apparatus and in particular communications systems.

File 17 The Road to War
Countdown to the attack - the aftermath
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